Chapter 4: Doing The Job
Anticipation is one of the areas where managers frequently fail. You've heard these lines before:
"no-one could have seen that coming"
"you don't know what you don't know"
These thoughts are poison to managerial success. It's precisely the job of a manager to expect the unexpected and avoid problems within the manager's control.
For some people thinking ahead and considering the unknown is second nature, others will have to learn the skill. So, if you're saying to yourself, "how can I know when lightning will strike?" you'll need to practice what you learn here until anticipation becomes habitual.
Start by considering your team's output, the goods and the services they produce. Then think of all the ways their production can fail. As you work through the possibilities, you'll realize you don't need to worry about every possible scenario and that the failures can be categorized. Without knowing the specifics of your business, here are some categories that apply to anyone:
Disasters such as fire or flood
Resource and raw material shortages
Skills shortages, staffing issues
Technology failures, such a power, network, or machinery outages
Transportation issues, such as fuel shortages or weather impacts
Quality failures, internal consistency and reliability problems
Each of these can be broken down into further detail, but how you plan for and respond within each category is likely the same.
Planning for major disasters is the responsibility of your organization’s senior leaders. If your organization has a disaster plan, you need to understand your place within it.
But what about interruptions that aren't so severe? You should consider the possibilities mentioned, and think about others that may be unique to you. Once you’ve thought them through, you need to determine how to monitor for and mitigate such issues.
For example, the pandemic’s impact on the supply of raw materials. You can anticipate this by monitoring supply chains for known issues and potential future shortages. To mitigate future problems, you can keep a local inventory or engage suppliers to maintain one for you. And you can ensure there are multiple suppliers at the ready. The same plan would apply to resource shortages due to demand fluctuations, economic or global political instability, vendor financial or quality issues, cost increases, etc. Simply planning for the lowest common denominator, resource shortages, covers a wide range of causes, you’re job is being prepared for the shortage to happen.
Apply the same thinking to skills shortages; you can cross-train your teams in case someone goes on leave, or a disease outbreak. You can engage with contractors to have access to their bench of needed skills. What other ideas can you think of based on your specific needs?
Those of you in organizations with strong change management policies are already familiar with testing and verifying your product before releasing it for use. The more rigorous the test, the less likely you'll experience defects or unexpected failures; and catch quality-related problems before they impact your stakeholders. If you're not familiar with change management, do some research, and consider applying its concepts to your department's output.
These are just a few examples of how to apply critical thinking towards predicting and preparing for the unknown. Here’s a very high-level process to follow when considering any potential interruption:
1. Analyze the Interruption in Detail
Understand the root cause of the interruption (e.g., supply chain disruption, equipment failure, labor shortage).
Break down the effects the interruption could have on operations, timelines, customer satisfaction, and financials.
Identify any early warning signs that might indicate the interruption is approaching.
2. Develop Mitigation Strategies
Prevention: Take steps to reduce the likelihood of the interruption occurring (e.g., diversifying suppliers, regular equipment maintenance).
Preparedness: Create a plan to minimize impact if the interruption occurs (e.g., stockpiling inventory, cross-training employees).
Response: Outline actions to take when the interruption arises (e.g., rapid response teams, alternative workflows).
Recovery: Develop a strategy for returning to normal operations as quickly as possible (e.g., business continuity plans, customer communication strategies).
3. Create a Detailed Mitigation Plan
Clearly document the mitigation steps for each specific interruption.
Assign roles and responsibilities for implementing each step.
Set timelines for reviewing and updating the plan regularly.
Include a communication plan to inform employees of actions, and stakeholders if appropriate.
4. Monitor and Review
Regularly monitor key indicators related to the identified interruption (e.g., supply levels, equipment health, customer demand).
Review and update your mitigation plan periodically to account for changes in the environment, market conditions, or business operations.
5. Test and Simulate
Conduct drills or simulations to test your mitigation plan (e.g., mock supply chain disruptions).
Evaluate how well the plan works and adjust based on any gaps or weaknesses identified.
It’s beyond the scope of this course to further instruct on anticipation, it can be a very intense topic on it’s on. Your takeaway: it’s a critical skill that must be incorporated into your planning. There are plenty of ways to learn more on your own; internet searches will provide a ton of resources.
Finally, approaches to mitigation may not be within your authority. Once you come up with plans for anticipation and mitigation, document and communicate these, to your boss. If nothing else, your management will be impressed. Be strategic; you can anticipate what you don't know!